Quick Update


This is becoming less of a blog and more of a time capsule! I never thought it would be so difficult to find time to write! But I guess life is happening at a quicker pace then I ever imagined. Right now CFA II is tormenting me day and night and with little more than 5 weeks to go I really should get back to studying. But first some quick commentary on the markets...

Recession/Bear musings: The coverage has been quite exhaustive so there's not much I really want to say here except that maybe I should consider going to law school and becoming a securities law attorney. I'm sure that is one demographic who won't be defaulting on mortgage payments in the next 5 years.

Commodities: There has to be at least a $30 speculation premium built into oil prices with current levels around $115. I believe it this premium is partially being caused by a feedback loop from other rising commodity prices (rice, corn) and is being reinforced as people are looking to diversify out of falling equity markets. Not to mention that Memorial day is right around the corner.

Credit Markets: The explosion in credit default swaps is most likely going to fall back to normal levels I think after regulation is introduced to this market. Heavy Hitters such as George Soros have been opining for regulation in the Alt-I world; likening hedge funds to "unregulated insurance companies".